We can make this a better country with UKIP. I run a science fiction bookshop in Glasgow (which partly explains my enthusiasm for human progress). Married to Hazel. Living in Woodlands. My father was Eastwood candidate for the Liberals. I spoke at LibDem conference in support of nuclear power, against illegal wars, for economic freedom and was the only person to speak directly against introducing the smoking ban. I was expelled, charged with economic liberalism. In 2007 I stood as the 9% Growth Party for economic freedom and cheap (nuclear) electricity. I am still proud of that manifesto - if vfollowed we would not have rising electricity bills and would be 80% better off with 7 years of 9% growth.
- UKIP is the only party opposed to Scotland having the most expensive "Climate Change Act" in the world; only party that wants us out of the EU - only part of the world economy still in recession - the rest is growing at an average of nearly 6% a year; only party opposed to effectively unlimited immigration; committed to growing our economy by the only way it can be done Economic Freedom + Cheap Energy; we offer referenda as a basic citizen right, as Switzerland and California do. --- Neil Craig

Friday, 2 May 2014

UKIP Polling Suggests Photo Finish With Conservatives - Will BBC Still Censor If We Are Scotland's 3rd Party?

    I'm ripping off Mike Haseler's UKIP blog today because his article about a poll on how UKIP are doing in the Scottish EU election is important:

....the blog What Scotland thinks. This shows UKIP with the following levels in recent opinion polls:
Jan 24th:4%
Mar 21st:6%
Apr 7th:7%
Apr 16th:10%
This does not suggest UKIP will get anywhere near 18% and even 12% would be stretching it. However it does show that the UKIP vote has been rising fairly linearly by about 2% a month. As such these figures suggests the best estimate of the final percentage is around 11-13% in the Euro elections.
Where are the votes coming from?
Looking at the figures from What Scotland thinks, as shown below the swing appears to be from the Green party and SNP. This is difficult to explain. Both the Greens and SNP are strongly pro-Euro-shacked-independence & strongly pro-wind. It would therefore appear unlikely that voters would switch directly to anti-Europe, anti-wind UKIP. It would seem more likely that UKIP are picking up Tory, Labour and perhaps Lib Dem votes whilst their places are being filled by those defecting from the SNP & green voters.
eurovotesSo what does this mean for the election
Based on the last poll on 16th April, the result will be as follows:
PartyResultChange from 2009
SNP:3 MEPs(+1)
Lab:2 MEPs-
Tory:1 MEP-
Lib Dem:0 MEPs(-1)
UKIP, Greens & others:None-
However, as the Tories only scrape in to get the last allocated MEP place with their 11% whilst UKIP was at 10%, if UKIP continue to rise by just another 1% or the Tories drop the same, then the result will be as follows
PartyResultChange from 2009
SNP:3 MEPs(+1)
Lab:2 MEPs-
Lib Dem:0 MEPs(-1)
UKIP:1 MEP(+1)
Greens, & others:None-
And I see the Scotsman have come to the same conclusion.

    That gives us everything to play for. The Greens and LibDems are nowhere. On the trend it looks more likely than not that we will pip the Tories to a seat. Not nearly as good as in the rest of the UK where we are running 38% or 36% against Labour's 27%, but unprecedented for Scotland where the Beeboids censor UKIP constantly.

    If the Tories cannot pick up 1 EU seat here (& only 1 Westminster seat) what do they exist for? Their spin machine has been concentrating for the last 2 years, not on telling people they have more sensible policies than ours, that issue has long been given away, bit simply that you mustn't split the vote.

    So what is the Tory party for if it is simply splitting the free market vote? Who would vote for them on that basis? Will this mean the melt down of the party - well yes, the only question is how quickly and will Ruth Davidson still be leading something calling itself the Conservatives by the next Holyrood election. OK getting a bit ahead of myself since we haven't yet beaten them, but....

    The other option is that this will bring the big guns of the state owned BBC to bear on us. That could get nasty - smears, lies and desperation. However the BBC have been so monolithic in their censorship of any mention of UKIP in Scotland [according to these polls we have about 30% as much support as the SNP so with SNP spokesmen on at least 3 times a day on their various programmes UKIP Scotland should have somebody daily - rather than twice a year] so it would be very obvious if they shifted from censorship to smears just a few days before the election.

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