I'm ripping off Mike Haseler's UKIP blog today because his article about a poll on how UKIP are doing in the Scottish EU election is important:
....the blog What Scotland thinks. This shows UKIP with the following levels in recent opinion polls:
This does not suggest UKIP will get anywhere near 18% and even 12% would be stretching it. However it does show that the UKIP vote has been rising fairly linearly by about 2% a month. As such these figures suggests the best estimate of the final percentage is around 11-13% in the Euro elections.
Where are the votes coming from?
Looking at the figures from What Scotland thinks, as shown below the swing appears to be from the Green party and SNP. This is difficult to explain. Both the Greens and SNP are strongly pro-Euro-shacked-independence & strongly pro-wind. It would therefore appear unlikely that voters would switch directly to anti-Europe, anti-wind UKIP. It would seem more likely that UKIP are picking up Tory, Labour and perhaps Lib Dem votes whilst their places are being filled by those defecting from the SNP & green voters.
So what does this mean for the election
Based on the last poll on 16th April, the result will be as follows:
However, as the Tories only scrape in to get the last allocated MEP place with their 11% whilst UKIP was at 10%, if UKIP continue to rise by just another 1% or the Tories drop the same, then the result will be as follows
And I see the Scotsman have come to the same conclusion.
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That gives us everything to play for. The Greens and LibDems are nowhere. On the trend it looks more likely than not that we will pip the Tories to a seat. Not nearly as good as in the rest of the UK where we are running 38% or 36% against Labour's 27%, but unprecedented for Scotland where the Beeboids censor UKIP constantly.
If the Tories cannot pick up 1 EU seat here (& only 1 Westminster seat) what do they exist for? Their spin machine has been concentrating for the last 2 years, not on telling people they have more sensible policies than ours, that issue has long been given away, bit simply that you mustn't split the vote.
So what is the Tory party for if it is simply splitting the free market vote? Who would vote for them on that basis? Will this mean the melt down of the party - well yes, the only question is how quickly and will Ruth Davidson still be leading something calling itself the Conservatives by the next Holyrood election. OK getting a bit ahead of myself since we haven't yet beaten them, but....
The other option is that this will bring the big guns of the state owned BBC to bear on us. That could get nasty - smears, lies and desperation. However the BBC have been so monolithic in their censorship of any mention of UKIP in Scotland [according to these polls we have about 30% as much support as the SNP so with SNP spokesmen on at least 3 times a day on their various programmes UKIP Scotland should have somebody daily - rather than twice a year] so it would be very obvious if they shifted from censorship to smears just a few days before the election.
....the blog What Scotland thinks. This shows UKIP with the following levels in recent opinion polls:
| Jan 24th: | 4% |
| Mar 21st: | 6% |
| Apr 7th: | 7% |
| Apr 16th: | 10% |
Where are the votes coming from?
Looking at the figures from What Scotland thinks, as shown below the swing appears to be from the Green party and SNP. This is difficult to explain. Both the Greens and SNP are strongly pro-Euro-shacked-independence & strongly pro-wind. It would therefore appear unlikely that voters would switch directly to anti-Europe, anti-wind UKIP. It would seem more likely that UKIP are picking up Tory, Labour and perhaps Lib Dem votes whilst their places are being filled by those defecting from the SNP & green voters.
So what does this mean for the electionBased on the last poll on 16th April, the result will be as follows:
| Party | Result | Change from 2009 |
| SNP: | 3 MEPs | (+1) |
| Lab: | 2 MEPs | - |
| Tory: | 1 MEP | - |
| Lib Dem: | 0 MEPs | (-1) |
| UKIP, Greens & others: | None | - |
| Party | Result | Change from 2009 |
| SNP: | 3 MEPs | (+1) |
| Lab: | 2 MEPs | - |
| Lib Dem: | 0 MEPs | (-1) |
| UKIP: | 1 MEP | (+1) |
| Greens, & others: | None | - |
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That gives us everything to play for. The Greens and LibDems are nowhere. On the trend it looks more likely than not that we will pip the Tories to a seat. Not nearly as good as in the rest of the UK where we are running 38% or 36% against Labour's 27%, but unprecedented for Scotland where the Beeboids censor UKIP constantly.
If the Tories cannot pick up 1 EU seat here (& only 1 Westminster seat) what do they exist for? Their spin machine has been concentrating for the last 2 years, not on telling people they have more sensible policies than ours, that issue has long been given away, bit simply that you mustn't split the vote.
So what is the Tory party for if it is simply splitting the free market vote? Who would vote for them on that basis? Will this mean the melt down of the party - well yes, the only question is how quickly and will Ruth Davidson still be leading something calling itself the Conservatives by the next Holyrood election. OK getting a bit ahead of myself since we haven't yet beaten them, but....
The other option is that this will bring the big guns of the state owned BBC to bear on us. That could get nasty - smears, lies and desperation. However the BBC have been so monolithic in their censorship of any mention of UKIP in Scotland [according to these polls we have about 30% as much support as the SNP so with SNP spokesmen on at least 3 times a day on their various programmes UKIP Scotland should have somebody daily - rather than twice a year] so it would be very obvious if they shifted from censorship to smears just a few days before the election.
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